Comments on: 3 Bogus Real Estate Statistics – Know Them Or Be Burned By Them

By: Getting “PUNCHY” about Great Real Estate Reads | Real Estate Advice

Getting “PUNCHY” about Great Real Estate Reads | Real Estate Advice — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 02:06:47 +0000

[...] READ: “3 Bogus Real Estate Statistics – Know Them or Be Burned By Them” by Joe Manausa at Really Better Real Estate. I gotta admit I enjoyed Joe’s discussion on why he [...]

By: Getting “PUNCHY” about Great Real Estate Reads | Home Values Franklin Indiana

Wed, 17 Nov 2010 20:27:06 +0000

[...] READ:?“3 Bogus Real Estate Statistics – Know Them or Be Burned By Them” by Joe Manausa at Really Better Real Estate. I gotta admit I enjoyed Joe’s discussion on why he [...]

By: Getting “PUNCHY” about Great Real Estate Reads

Getting “PUNCHY” about Great Real Estate Reads — Tue, 08 Jun 2010 15:52:54 +0000

[...] READ: “3 Bogus Real Estate Statistics – Know Them or Be Burned By Them” by Joe Manausa at Really Better Real Estate. I gotta admit I enjoyed Joe’s discussion on why he [...]

By: manesh

manesh — Tue, 27 Apr 2010 15:02:57 +0000

great information. enjoy read it. thks

By: fikar

fikar — Tue, 27 Apr 2010 11:51:53 +0000

nice article, i like it

By: Realtor San Francisco Bay Area

Realtor San Francisco Bay Area — Tue, 20 Apr 2010 10:49:53 +0000

Very interesting article, I think your respectable friend have right “the market is tough” and the 80/20 rule is true, but statistics are always just statistics…we don’t believe in statistics…

By: Paul Chadwick

Paul Chadwick — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 20:20:10 +0000

Sorry for the long delay in answering your question.
10.5 months roughly equals 315 days,so 157 is the average.As a whole half of the home will sell in less than 157 days and half more. I do use statistics when helping people to make decisions about their homes, but I go back and dig through the listing history. This is a laborious task, but as you pointed out ,if you are trying to paint a usable and accurate picture for your clients it is currently the only reliable method. (I do not have accurate statistics for FISBOS, so I do not include them) I have relentlessly lobbied my MLS to change the way statistics are reported so that Realtors can present real and truthful data.( I know there are rascals who are more than happy to misreport the true statics)
I have some innovate ways of assessing data that I have developed over the years.I want to come at a problem with as many approaches as possible. The more data you can use, the smaller the margin of error. I have tracked my data (even for properties that I did not list), and have been quite accurate with my analysis. This is not meant to be bragging, but it points out your initial theory that bad data will give you poor results.

By: Chris

Chris — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 20:00:09 +0000

“Plenty of other resources exist that will allow a real estate professional to study real estate market statistics.”

As a new realtor in the field, I would be interested in knowing exactly what useful statistics I can study. I have been looking for a resource to learn effective and useful statistics for residential real estate, while I keep hearing the most common ones (like the above) are not actually accurate.

By: Joe Manausa

Joe Manausa — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 11:32:34 +0000

Thanks Paul. Can you explain how you deduce 157 days time on the market based upon 10.5 months supply of homes?

By: Paul Chadwick

Paul Chadwick — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 21:32:03 +0000

Use absorption rate as your market time gauge, this will reduce all the re-listing and time manipulation that clouds the information.
Simply take all the sales for an appropriate time frame, I would suggest either 6 months or one year, add up all the comparable sales in your target area and divide by the number of months you used.
Then pull the same demographic data set from the current actives in your MLS and divide by the number of sales per month from your first search.
Here is an example:
200 homes sold in the past 12 months that are equal to the subject.
200 divided by 12 = 16.6
16.6 homes sold per month in the past 12 months
currently there are 175 homes for sale that are equal to the subject
175 divided by 16.6 = 10.5
Based on the previous year it will take 10.5 months to clear the current inventory (this will change of course as inventory is added or subtracted).
This does not predict how any single home will perform but it will give you a guide to market averages.
In this example the average home will sell in about 157 days.